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19 Maggio 2024 / 22:38
 

 
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Penza (PwC Italia): “Probabile ripresa del credito alle imprese nel secondo semestre 2024”

di Flavio Padovan Maddalena Libertini
03 Aprile 2024

“Nel 2023 l’andamento del credito alle imprese in Italia ha seguito il trend che aveva caratterizzato la fine del 2022, segnando una riduzione significativa in particolare verso le piccole imprese. Un fenomeno registrato anche in altri Paesi europei, ma in misura largamente inferiore”, spiega Pietro Penza, Partner, Financial Services Risk & Regulatory Leader di PwC Italia, che abbiamo incontrato a CREDITO E FINANZA 2024.

“Una riduzione del credito alle imprese – continua Penza – dovuta essenzialmente a un calo della domanda determinato dall’andamento macroeconomico e alla crescita dei tassi. In questo scenario le imprese hanno trovato risorse con l’autofinanziamento, quindi con gli utili generati, e con i depositi che avevano accumulato durante il periodo pandemico quando l’accesso al credito era più semplice”.

Un rialzo dei tassi che, nonostante i timori non ha avuto impatti sui rischi, almeno finora, come sottolinea Penza. Inoltre, il tasso di default è rimasto sostanzialmente stabile, le probabilità di default in linea con quelle degli altri Paesi europei e le posizioni in stadio 2 secondo IFRS 9 sono addirittura diminuite dal 2022.

Nel secondo semestre 2024 qualcosa dovrebbe cambiare, come già stanno prevedendo le prime indagini condotte dalle Banche centrali. La domanda di credito dovrebbe infatti aumentare sia per l’esaurirsi della capacità di autofinanziamento o dei depositi, sia per una naturale crescita che stanno già rilevando le survey delle Banche centrali. Ovviamente in parallelo ci sarà un rialzo dei rischi accompagnato da una auspicabile riduzione dei tassi”.


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